Wall Street thought Donald Trump was bluffing about his tariff plans. The stock market rallied after his election. But the reality has started setting in. Trump is doubling down on tariffs, even as he warned Americans that the economy may experience a “period of transition,” insisting this is just short-term pain.

So what exactly is Trump’s theory here? And how much pain should we expect?

Answering those questions requires a bit of a tariffs primer. And the economist Kimberly Clausing kindly agreed to come on the show, walk through the basics, and help me make sense of what Trump is doing here. Clausing has modeled the possible costs and consequences of the tariffs Trump has proposed, and she breaks down how much you and I might end up paying. Clausing is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a professor at U.C.L.A. and the author of “Open: The Progressive Case for Free Trade, Immigration, and Global Capital.”

This conversation contains strong language.

Note: This conversation was recorded on Wednesday, March 5.

Mentioned:

We’re taping an “Ask Me Anything” episode soon. You can email me at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com with a question. Please use the subject like “AMA.” We’ll consider any questions that are shared by the end of the day on Tuesday March 18.

“The Real Reason President Trump Pushes Tariffs” by Kimberly Clausing

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Book Recommendations:

The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis

Mountains Beyond Mountains by Tracy Kidder

The Worldly Philosophers by Robert L. Heilbroner

Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.

You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.

This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris. Mixing by Isaac Jones, with Efim Shapiro and Aman Sahota. Our supervising editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Elias Isquith, Kristin Lin and Jack McCordick. Original music by Pat McCusker. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. Special thanks to Pat McCusker.

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